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Prediction for CME (2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2017-09-10T16:00ZCME Note: Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T19:26Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 5.0 Dst min. in nT: -50 Dst min. time: 2017-09-13T01:00Z Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-11T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: :Issued: 2017 Sep 11 0829 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The X8.9 flare (peaked at 16:06 UT, on September 10) which originated from the Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) was associated with the full halo CME. The projected speed of the CME was about 2900 km/s. The arrival of the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is expected today at about 12:00 UT. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 34.95 hour(s) Difference: 31.43 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2017-09-11T08:29Z |
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